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The average rate on newly funded mortgages and the average rate across all outstanding mortgages tell two different stories — and the gap between them has flipped more than once since 2019.
average rate on new uninsured mortgage lending, May 2026
— just 0.06 points above the 4.21% average across all outstanding uninsured mortgage balances.
Bank of Canada (series V122667781, V122667793)
New-lending rates react fastest to Bank of Canada moves; the outstanding-book rate changes more slowly as it blends in older, lower-rate terms.
Year-end average rate on new uninsured mortgage lending by chartered banks (May 2026 for the current year). Source: Bank of Canada.
New-lending rates move first, and furthest: the average rate on new uninsured mortgages swung from 1.99% in 2021 to a peak of 6.43% in 2023 — a 4.44-point move in two years.
The outstanding-book rate lags because it blends old and new terms: it peaked lower, at 4.73% in 2023, because millions of mortgages were still carrying pre-2022 rates.
The gap flipped in 2022 and has now flipped back: new-lending rates ran well above the outstanding-book average through the hiking cycle, but by 2025 the two had converged, with outstanding briefly running above new.
By May 2026 the two rates are nearly identical: new lending averages 4.27% and the outstanding book 4.21%, just a 0.06-point gap — a sign the renewal wave has largely repriced the back book to current market rates.
| Year | New lending rate | Outstanding book rate | Gap | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 3.17% | 3.16% | +0.01 pts | |
| 2020 | 2.08% | 2.66% | -0.58 pts | Pandemic cuts hit new lending fastest |
| 2021 | 1.99% | 2.34% | -0.35 pts | New-lending rate at its low |
| 2022 | 5.53% | 4.09% | +1.44 pts | Hiking cycle repriced new loans immediately |
| 2023 | 6.43% | 4.73% | +1.70 pts | PEAK gap — new lending well above the back book |
| 2024 | 4.90% | 4.48% | +0.42 pts | Gap narrows as cuts begin |
| 2025 | 4.28% | 4.30% | -0.02 pts | Rates converge |
| 2026 (May) | 4.27% | 4.21% | +0.06 pts | Near parity |
Source: Bank of Canada, Valet series V122667781 (new uninsured mortgage lending rate) and V122667793 (outstanding uninsured mortgage balance rate). Values are month-end; year-end where available, May 2026 for the current year.
Swing in the new-lending rate from the 2021 low to the 2023 peak
Bank of Canada
Peak average rate on new uninsured mortgage lending, reached in 2023
Bank of Canada
Peak average rate across the outstanding uninsured mortgage book, reached in 2023
Bank of Canada
Posted 5-year conventional mortgage rate, July 2026, for comparison
Bank of Canada
When the two rates are close, as in 2026, it means most of the back book has already repriced to something near today's market — the renewal shock has largely happened. When they diverge sharply, as in 2022–2023, it's a signal that a wave of below-market mortgages is still working its way toward renewal, and capacity planning should account for the coming volume.
Last updated August 1, 2026. Each figure carries its source; projections are labelled. Page reviewed on every major source release. Information only — not advice.
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