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Lenders price fixed mortgages off the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield, not the policy rate — this is the number to watch before a fixed-rate move.
5-year Government of Canada benchmark bond yield, July 2026
— up from a 2.96% low in 2024–2025, but well below the 3.41% peak reached in 2022.
Bank of Canada (series BD.CDN.5YR.DQ.YLD)
Values are the benchmark yield as of the last business day of each year (late July for 2026).
Year-end values of the 5-year Government of Canada benchmark bond yield; 2026 reflects the most recent published value as of late July. Source: Bank of Canada.
This yield, not the policy rate, sets fixed mortgage pricing: lenders add a spread to the 5-year GoC yield to price 5-year fixed mortgages, so it can move (and pull fixed rates with it) between Bank of Canada meetings.
2020 was the all-time low: the yield collapsed to 0.39% during the pandemic as investors piled into safe government debt.
2022 saw the sharpest repricing in decades: the yield jumped from 1.25% to 3.41% in a single year as markets priced in aggressive Bank of Canada hikes.
The 2024–2026 rebound explains why fixed rates haven't fallen as fast as variable: even as the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate, the 5-year yield climbed back toward 3.2%, keeping fixed pricing firmer than many clients expect.
| Year | 5-yr GoC yield | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 0.73% | — | |
| 2016 | 1.11% | +0.38 pts | Post-election reflation trade |
| 2017 | 1.86% | +0.75 pts | Rate-hike expectations build |
| 2018 | 1.88% | +0.02 pts | Held near cycle high |
| 2019 | 1.68% | -0.20 pts | Global growth concerns |
| 2020 | 0.39% | -1.29 pts | Pandemic low |
| 2021 | 1.25% | +0.86 pts | Reflation and taper expectations |
| 2022 | 3.41% | +2.16 pts | PEAK — sharpest annual repricing on record |
| 2023 | 3.17% | -0.24 pts | Yields ease from the peak |
| 2024 | 2.96% | -0.21 pts | Bank of Canada begins cutting |
| 2025 | 2.96% | 0.00 pts | Held near 2024 level |
| 2026 | 3.19% | +0.23 pts | As of July 2026 |
Source: Bank of Canada, Valet series BD.CDN.5YR.DQ.YLD (benchmark bond yield: 5 year). Values are year-end.
Posted 5-year conventional mortgage rate, July 2026
Bank of Canada
Bank of Canada policy rate, July 2026 (drives variable, not fixed, pricing)
Bank of Canada
Peak 5-year GoC yield, reached in 2022
Bank of Canada
All-time-low 5-year GoC yield, reached in 2020
Bank of Canada
A client asking “will fixed rates drop at the next Bank of Canada meeting?” is usually asking the wrong question — fixed pricing moves with the bond market, which can shift well ahead of or independent from a rate decision. Understanding the spread between the 5-year yield and the posted rate helps a broker explain why lenders repriced fixed products before (or without) a policy move.
Last updated August 1, 2026. Each figure carries its source; projections are labelled. Page reviewed on every major source release. Information only — not advice.
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