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The share of new Canadian mortgages written at a variable rate has swung from single digits to the most popular option and back again since 2020 — CMHC and Statistics Canada track the shift monthly.
of new chartered-bank mortgages were variable-rate by February 2026
— the highest since 2022, and up from a cycle-low of 5% in mid-2023.
CMHC Residential Mortgage Industry Report
Share of new chartered-bank mortgage lending written at a variable rate, selected months.
Monthly share of new chartered-bank mortgage lending written at a variable rate. Source: Statistics Canada Table 10-10-0006-01 via CMHC Residential Mortgage Industry Report (Fall 2024 edition for 2020-2024; Spring 2026 edition for February 2026).
January 2022 was the all-time peak for variable: 57% of new chartered-bank mortgage dollars went variable just as the Bank of Canada signalled the start of its hiking cycle — the worst possible timing for many of those borrowers.
The 2022–2023 hiking cycle nearly wiped out variable-rate demand: the share collapsed to just 5% by July 2023 as variable pricing lost its discount to fixed.
Variable is back on top as of early 2026: CMHC reports variable-rate mortgages became the most popular option again in late 2025 and early 2026, reaching 42% of new lending by February, as variable pricing dipped below fixed for the first time since 2022.
Traditional 5-year fixed has never fully recovered its old share: only 11% of new mortgages were 5-year-plus fixed by February 2026, with borrowers instead splitting between variable and shorter (1–5 year) fixed terms.
| Month | Variable share | 5-yr+ fixed share | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2020 | 7% | 46% | Pre-pandemic baseline |
| Jan 2021 | 25% | 39% | Pandemic-era low rates favour variable |
| Jan 2022 | 57% | 21% | PEAK — variable share tops out as hikes begin |
| Jul 2023 | 5% | 15% | Cycle low as variable loses its rate discount |
| Jan 2024 | 20% | 12% | Brief pickup on rate-cut expectations |
| Feb 2026 | 42% | 11% | Variable becomes the most popular option again |
Source: Statistics Canada Table 10-10-0006-01 (Funds advanced, outstanding balances, and interest rates for new and existing lending); CMHC calculations, published in CMHC's Residential Mortgage Industry Report.
Bank of Canada policy rate, July 2026
Bank of Canada
Share of Q4 2025 first-time-buyer bank mortgages that were insured, up from the mid-40% range
CMHC
Canadian residential mortgage debt outstanding, January 2026
CMHC
Expected drop in 2026 renewal volume versus 2025, per CMHC
CMHC
A client renewing in 2026 is making this choice in a very different rate environment than one who locked in during the 2022 spike — and the swing back to variable means more of them will ask about it. Brokers who can show the actual historical swing, not just today's snapshot, build more trust than a same-day rate quote alone.
Last updated August 1, 2026. Each figure carries its source; projections are labelled. Page reviewed on every major source release. Information only — not advice.
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