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CMHC's Spring 2026 Residential Mortgage Industry Report shows newly originated mortgage dollars going to low-credit-score borrowers have fallen by half since 2022, even as the outstanding mortgage stock still carries an older, weaker cohort.
of newly originated mortgage dollars in Q4 2025 went to borrowers with credit scores below 600
— half the 0.6% share in Q4 2022, even as low-score borrowers hold 1.7% of the outstanding mortgage stock.
CMHC, Residential Mortgage Industry Report, Spring 2026 (data: Equifax Canada)
New lending to low-credit-score borrowers has been cut in half since 2022 — but the existing loan book hasn't caught up.
Share of mortgage loan dollar volume held by consumers with a credit score below 600, comparing the outstanding mortgage stock to newly originated loans, Q4 2022 vs. Q4 2025. Source: CMHC, Residential Mortgage Industry Report, Spring 2026 (data: Equifax Canada).
Origination quality and stock quality are moving in opposite directions: just 0.4% of newly originated mortgage dollars went to sub-600 borrowers in Q4 2025, down from 0.6% in Q4 2022, even as the outstanding stock share for the same credit band rose from 1.1% to 1.7%.
CMHC calls it a stock-versus-flow dynamic: recent originations show stronger credit quality, but the existing loan book still carries earlier, weaker cohorts — and a borrower's current score can also drift down after their mortgage was originated.
More borrowers improved than declined in 2025: CMHC reports that more mortgage holders saw their credit score improve than experienced a decline over the course of 2025.
OSFI's loan-to-income rule gets partial credit: CMHC attributes part of the tightening at origination to OSFI's loan-to-income regulation, announced in April 2024, which constrains how much high-LTI lending banks can originate.
| Measure | Period | Share of mortgage $ (credit score below 600) |
|---|---|---|
| Outstanding stock | Q4 2022 | 1.1% |
| Outstanding stock | Q4 2025 | 1.7% |
| Newly originated | Q4 2022 | 0.6% |
| Newly originated | Q4 2025 | 0.4% |
Source: CMHC, Residential Mortgage Industry Report, Spring 2026 (data: Equifax Canada).
90+ day delinquency rate at mortgage investment entities (MIEs) in Q3 2025, the fastest-rising of any lender type
CMHC
share of uninsured originations with amortization over 25 years in Q4 2025, down from 65% in Q4 2024
CMHC
share of originations with a total debt service ratio above 45% in Q4 2025, down from a peak of 36% in Q4 2022
CMHC
Canada's total residential mortgage debt outstanding as of December 2025
CMHC
A widening gap between origination quality (0.4%) and stock quality (1.7%) means below-600 files are increasingly hard to place with a bank, even though CMHC's data shows the flow of new low-score lending shrinking. That's exactly where alt and private lending, and careful file packaging, do the most work — strong documentation and a clear explanation of what improved can be the difference between a decline and an approval.
Last updated August 2, 2026. Each figure carries its source; projections are labelled. Page reviewed on every major source release. Information only — not advice.
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