Hustle & GritWatch us on YouTube
How much are mortgage payments actually rising at renewal? The Bank of Canada breaks it down by mortgage type and renewal period in its Financial Stability Report 2026.
average payment increase facing Canadians renewing a pandemic-era five-year-plus fixed mortgage in the next 12 months
— while variable and shorter fixed-term borrowers renewing over the same period will see, on average, almost no change in their payment.
Bank of Canada, Financial Stability Report 2026
The size of the payment jump depends almost entirely on when — and at what rate — a borrower originally locked in.
Average change in mortgage payments at renewal versus December 2025 payments, based on market rate expectations as of May 19, 2026. Bank of Canada, Financial Stability Report 2026, Chart 8.
The pandemic cohort faces the sharpest jump: Canadians renewing a five-year-plus fixed mortgage taken out in 2020–22 will see payments rise by about 15% on average over the next 12 months, per the Bank of Canada.
Variable and shorter-fixed borrowers are largely done adjusting: this group's average payment change over the same period is essentially flat (−0.04%), because most already repriced when rates rose in 2022–23.
The stress test cushioned most renewers: more than 90% of borrowers who renewed in the 12 months to May 2026 did so at rates below the qualifying rate they were stress-tested at, according to the Bank of Canada.
Some borrowers absorbed the hit by extending amortization: the Bank of Canada estimates about 10% of borrowers who held a mortgage in 2022 have since refinanced, and roughly 70% of those extended their amortization by an average of six years to manage the higher payment.
| Mortgage type | Renewal period | Avg. payment change | Share of accounts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year-plus fixed (pandemic-era) | 2026 H2 – 2027 H1 | +15.2% | 12.4% |
| 5-year-plus fixed (pandemic-era) | 2027 H2 | +5.8% | 4.1% |
| Variable or fixed <5 years | 2026 H2 – 2027 H1 | −0.04% | 14.4% |
| Variable or fixed <5 years | 2027 H2 | +1.2% | 10.2% |
Bank of Canada, Financial Stability Report 2026, Chart 8. Payment changes are relative to December 2025 payments; based on market rate expectations as of May 19, 2026.
of borrowers renewing in the past 12 months did so below their mortgage stress-test qualifying rate
Bank of Canada
growth in average household disposable income, 2021–2025 — helping absorb payment increases
Bank of Canada
average amortization extension for the ~70% of 2022 borrowers who refinanced to manage payments
Bank of Canada
of borrowers renewing in 2027 are projected to be unable to refinance at current home prices (9% in Toronto)
Bank of Canada
A 15% payment jump is exactly the kind of number that turns a routine renewal into a client conversation worth having early. Brokers who model the actual payment change for each client's specific mortgage type — rather than relying on generic rate-shock headlines — can proactively offer amortization extensions, blend-and-extend options, or lender switches before the client's existing lender's auto-renewal letter arrives.
Last updated August 1, 2026. Each figure carries its source; projections are labelled. Page reviewed on every major source release. Information only — not advice.
See how Treadstone can scale your brokerage — a free call, no commitment.